CAN ENABLE WIN THE ARC & BECOME THE WORLD’S BEST RACEHORSE

29. Sep 17 | 14:45 | By | Category: INTERNATIONAL NEWS

This weekend sees the eyes of the horse racing world turn to France, where the Qatar Pris de l’Arc de Triomphe will be run at Chantilly.  Short priced favourite is British filly Enable,  already the winner of Europe’s other prestige middle distance race, the King George and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes at Ascot in July, and for whom a win will hopefully mean taking her place at the top of the Longines World Racehorse Ranking (LWBRR),  still currently held by American star Arrogate.

Many in the racing world are already wondering why this is so,  considering that Arrogate has been beaten in his last two starts, while Enable majestically strode to easy wins at Ascot and then York. Her ascot victim, Ulysses, subsequently won the Juddmonte International,  but even this line of form has not been enough to set the John Gosden trained filly  (who he rates at the best filly he has ever trained) on top of the world rankings. In fact, when the latest update of the LWBRR) was published last week,  Ulysses had been rated higher than the horse who had beaten him so easily the month before!!
Phillip Smith, Head of Handicapping  for the British Horseracing Authority and who also contributes to the Longines rankings, explained why this is. ” The LWBRR is not a handicap it is a classification of “best sustainable performances” through the year. In a handicap if a horse has 3 or 4 moderate runs after a win we would probably drop it a little, taking the view that it had lost its way somewhat and we wanted it be competitive in a handicap.
 In LWBRR we look again at the race where its best performance comes from and decide whether we still believe it. You will notice that Gun Runner who was well beaten by Arrogate in Dubai has won 3 out of 3 G1’s since going back to America so the form of Dubai has been confirmed and for whatever reason Arrogate has under-performed. It does not lessen the quality of his performance in Dubai however.
 Winx (Australia’s wonder mare currrently on an unbeaten 18 race streak) has not had to perform better than her 132 achieved in the George Ryder back in March. She keeps beating moderate opposition comfortably despite missing the break (on her last start). It is difficult to raise her until she beats better horses of the calibre of Gun Runner.
Ulysses is now higher than Enable because the world’s handicappers believe that his run York was better than hers at Ascot. It was a different trip and we believe that he is better at 10f than 12f especially on soft ground. You will notice that he is 127IT and she is 126LT denoting a different distance category. However when they meet at Chantilly, I expect her to win as it is over 2400m and she will get 1.5kg (3lb) sex allowance which you should add to her rating making her 129.”
On Sunday,  Enable and Ulysses will stage a rematch. Also running is the 1000 Guineas and Nassau Stakes winner, Winter; super stayer and last year’s third, Order of St George, German Derby winner Dschinges Secret, French Derby winner Brametot,  Irish Derby winner Capri and Japanese Group One winner Santono Diamond.  It is a excellent field and if Enable wins, she will join the all time greats of the world.  But despite her brilliance so far, cases can be made for several of her rivals to stage an upset.  Order of St George has been to the track before and is older and possibly stronger. Winter was surprisingly beaten last time out after a small delay in her training schedule but prior to that she won the Nassau at Goodwood as she liked and anything trained by Aiden O’brien must be respected.  Brametot is a course and distance winner and the French are notoriously hard to beat on their home soil.   The race runs at 4.05 local time and then we will see who really is the best in Europe and maybe the world.

 

Source: Grandprix Replay


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